Forecasting in a Pandemic World (Part 1)
This is the first of a multi-part blog on predictions based on probability statement, using a Tetlock framework. Part 2 will explore the...
Running Against The Devil: Book Review
Running Against the Devil: A Plot to Save America From Trump--and Democrats From Themselves (2020), Rick Wilson. Wilson is (or was) a...
Why We're Polarized: Book Review
Why We're Polarized: Ezra Klein (2020). This is an important book with lots of content from several perspectives, including a substantial...
Between Two Fires: Book Review
Surviving in Putin's Russia is the focus of this book, telling the stories of people in very different circumstances, some famous and...
Arguing With Zombies
Arguing With Zombies: Economics, Politics, and the Fight for a Better Future (2020), Paul Krugman. The thesis is that a number of ideas...
Homewreckers: Book Review
Homewreckers: How a Gang of Wall Street Kingpins, Head Fund Magnates, Crooked Banks, and Vulture Capitalists Suckered Millions out of...
Duped: Book Review
Duped: Truth-Default Theory and the Social Science of Lying and Deception (2020), Tim Levine. Gladwell's Talking to Strangers used...
Veblen Goods
Veblen goods are luxury products (services also apply) where quantity goes up with price, contradicting the usual interpretation of...
Impeachment Hearings
After a couple of weeks of House impeachment hearings, what stands out to me is the professionalism of the foreign service officers (also...
Echo Chambers and Epistemic Bubbles
An article in the paper ("A Reverb Epidemic" by Thi Nguyen) caught my attention, considering "radical polarization." Politics jumps out...
Malcolm Gladwell: Book Reviews
After Talking to Strangers, it's time to reread Gladwell's earlier books and add some analysis. A basic characteristic of Gladwell's...
Education of an Idealist: Book Review
The Education of an Idealist: A Memoir (2019), Samantha Power. Detailed memoir of her life, parts of it relevant to a MVG perspective....
Becoming: Book Review
Becoming (2018), Michelle Obama, interesting and inspirational memoir by the former First Lady. She grew up in a working class home in...
Information Wars: Book Review
Information Wars: How We Lost the Global Battle Against Disinformation & What We Can Do About It (2019), Richard Stengel. Stengel was...
Wall Streeters: Book Review
Wall Streeters: The Creators and Corruptors of American Finance (2017), Edward Morris. Covers 14 men with influence on 20th century...