What Does the Future of Washington Politics Look Like?

Chuck Todd on Meet the Press (January 24, 2021) presented an interesting poll, dividing the political parties into four camps: Trump Republicans, Party Republicans, Biden Democrats, and Sanders/AOC Democrats. Each of these represented exactly 17% of the voters. (The other 32% is anyone’s guess). Does this mean the chance of bipartisan support for Biden’s agenda? Much of it seems like common sense (pandemic relief, extending unemployment, rent and mortgage extensions, funding for state and local governments), although I’m lukewarm to a bit of it (like sending out $1,400 checks to everyone). Obviously, 17% are in almost total agreement with Biden. I expect the Sander’s Democrats to be reasonable and go along with much of the Biden agenda. I assume they will just want more. Trump Republicans should oppose virtually all of it, considering the election stolen and Biden illegitimate, period.

I assume the Party Republicans are hard-core conservatives. By and large, I disagree with them on many issues, but they proved themselves to be honorable and rule-abiding; consider the Republican officials in Georgia and Arizona categorically rejected Trump’s claim of fraud, or Mitt Romney who voted to impeach Trump. This group is an unknown on cooperative with Biden’s agenda. They may have principles, but reelection is project 1. Ensuring a successful America is not the road to Republican success with Democrats in charge. However, it only takes a few, like ten in the Senate, to overcome a filibuster. Because I’m claiming no clue, that’s not going out on a limb.

Stay tuned for updates, assuming making sense out of preliminary decisions is possible. Right now, my forecast is 50/50 for bipartisan success on the Biden addenda. I’m counting on Philip Tetlock’s fox analogy to consider forecasting adjustment as new information shows up.

I wrote a blog calling all post-World War II presidents mediocre (perhaps I’m a hard grader). Trump is the first exception, on the down side. I’d like to see Biden on the up side. We’ll see.