Subjective Probabilities: Texas Edition

December 7, 2017

Earlier this year I added a number of Trump possibilities, but only thought two were likely (probability over 50%): Trump would serve out his full term and the US would be in recession by 2020. Austin-American columnist Ken Herman asked which of five alternative would be the least likely in Texas:

  1. Officially recognize football as a religion.

  2. Make it illegal to be poor.

  3. Declare education optional.

  4. Make football the official religion of the state.

  5. Elect a Hispanic lesbian governor.

The point was Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez, a Hispanic lesbian, filed to run for governor as a Democrat. I have been derelict in ignoring Texas politics from my probability list. The most obvious one, I think, is when minority voters outnumber white voters and presumably start electing Democrats for important state offices, probably sometime in the 2020-2030 decade (by two year increments consider the probabilities, say 10% in 2020, rising to 60% by 2030). Stay tuned; I'll come up with a new list in the coming weeks.


Scenarios to consider: what is the probability?


Texas will pass the bathroom bill, limiting the rights of transgendered people and causing boycotts of Texas events.  __________%


Greg Abbott will be reelected governor.  __________%


Ditto Dan Patrick for lt. governor. __________% 


Beto O'Rourke beat Ted Cruz for US senate seat. __________ %


Texas will increase the gas tax to improve roads rather than rely on toll roads. __________%




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© 2016 Gary Giroux