Subjective Probabilities on President Trump

August 15, 2017

The early views on President Trump run the gamut. Eurasian Group President Ian Bremmer considers Trump likely to continue the presidency for 8 years. Writer Malcolm Gladwell suggests that Trump will be in jail within a year. Consider the range of possibilities from success to failure (which is much wider than previous presidents). Question: what is the chance (probability stated as a percentage from 0% to 100%) of each (no wishful thinking)?


Trump will be a two-term president, with most of his promises fulfilled:   _____%

Trump is a one-term president with a mixed record:                                 _____%

There will be a recession within 4 years:                                                   _____%

Trump is impeached (and convicted):                                                        _____%

Trump ends up in jail:                                                                                 _____%


More extreme possibilities:

Trump serves 8 years, followed by Pence for 8, complete domination of Washington by Republicans for at least 16 years: _____%

Trump serves 8 years, then takes control for life while announcing marshal law:                                                                 _____%

Conspiracy theories against Trump, his allies, Russians, etc. prove true; Trump is impeached and many people end up in jail: _____%


[Academics may prefer the idea of Baynesian probabilities, statements that can be true or false, but unknown. Probability estimates are based on a reasonable expectation based on the state of knowledge and prior probabilities.]

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© 2016 Gary Giroux